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The Nexus
Data through Jun 20, 2026
Reported vs. measured

Chicago, IL

Chicago crime coverage and city data show sharply different category mixes across the 90-day window ending June 20, 2026

Over the 90-day window, Chicago's open data recorded 57,619 total incidents. The two largest measured categories were assault (16,122 incidents, 28% of the total) and theft (12,560, 22%), followed by vandalism (6,297, 11%) and motor vehicle theft (4,517, 8%). Homicide, at 107 recorded incidents, represented less than 1% of all measured crime. Burglary posted the sharpest recent acceleration at plus 33% over the trailing 30 days, and weapons offenses rose 22%, while fraud and arson each moved lower by 8% and 23% respectively. Those proportions form the baseline against which both coverage tracks should be read.

National outlet coverage (90 stories total) devoted 54% of its Chicago crime stories to homicide, a category that makes up under 1% of measured incidents. Theft, which accounts for 22% of recorded crime, drew only 3% of national stories (3 of 90). Vandalism (11% of data) and fraud (5% of data) each received zero national stories. That gap is the defining feature of the national coverage track: it concentrates almost entirely on homicide, assault, arson, and disorder while leaving the high-volume property crime landscape almost invisible. Local coverage (325 stories) produced a meaningfully different but still skewed picture: homicide drew 43% of local stories (140 of 325), assault 22% (71 stories), sex offenses 8% (25 stories), and robbery 6% (21 stories). A June 28, 2026 River North shooting during a robbery was covered simultaneously by the Chicago Sun-Times, WGN9, FOX 32, and ABC7, illustrating how a single violent incident can generate multiple local story units. Vandalism (11% of data, 6,297 incidents) received zero local stories in the window, and fraud (2,838 incidents, 5% of data) likewise drew none, meaning both tracks share a blind spot on property and financial crime even as local coverage distributes attention more broadly than national.

The national-versus-local divergence is clearest in two places. First, homicide: national outlets assigned 54% of their stories to it versus 43% locally, a gap of 11 percentage points on the same category. Second, arson: national outlets gave arson 9% of their coverage share (8 of 90 stories) while local outlets assigned only 3% (9 of 325), even though arson posted the steepest measured decline at minus 23% over 30 days, suggesting national interest in arson may not track its current measured trajectory. Robbery shows the inverse pattern: local outlets produced 21 stories (6% share) against 1 national story (1% share), a category where local press is clearly the more detailed source. Readers relying solely on national coverage would encounter a city whose crime story is almost entirely about homicide and, secondarily, arson; readers of local coverage see more of assault, robbery, sex offenses, and weapons, though high-volume property categories remain undercovered in both tracks relative to their share of recorded incidents.

Recorded incidents · last 18 months
2025-012026-07
Incidents vs. national vs. local coverage

Each category’s share of measured incidents, national/cable coverage, and local coverage over the same ~90-day window.

90 national stories · 325 local stories in window

Assault
Measured
16,122 · 28%

16,122 incidents recorded over the ~90-day window, through Jun 20, 2026.

30-day trend: +5% vs. the prior 30 days.

Source: Chicago PD 'Crimes - 2001 to Present'

National
16 stories · 18%
Local
71 stories · 22%
Theft
Measured
12,560 · 22%

12,560 incidents recorded over the ~90-day window, through Jun 20, 2026.

30-day trend: +3% vs. the prior 30 days.

Source: Chicago PD 'Crimes - 2001 to Present'

National
3 stories · 3%
Local
9 stories · 3%
Vandalism
Measured
6,297 · 11%

6,297 incidents recorded over the ~90-day window, through Jun 20, 2026.

30-day trend: +9% vs. the prior 30 days.

Source: Chicago PD 'Crimes - 2001 to Present'

National
1 story · 1%
Local
none
Other
Measured
5,092 · 9%

5,092 incidents recorded over the ~90-day window, through Jun 20, 2026.

30-day trend: +7% vs. the prior 30 days.

Source: Chicago PD 'Crimes - 2001 to Present'

National
2 stories · 2%
Local
13 stories · 4%
Fraud
Measured
2,838 · 5%

2,838 incidents recorded over the ~90-day window, through Jun 20, 2026.

30-day trend: -8% vs. the prior 30 days.

Source: Chicago PD 'Crimes - 2001 to Present'

National
0 stories · 0%
Local
none
Weapons
Measured
1,241 · 2%

1,241 incidents recorded over the ~90-day window, through Jun 20, 2026.

30-day trend: +22% vs. the prior 30 days.

Source: Chicago PD 'Crimes - 2001 to Present'

National
3 stories · 3%
Local
13 stories · 4%
Robbery
Measured
1,050 · 2%

1,050 incidents recorded over the ~90-day window, through Jun 20, 2026.

30-day trend: +12% vs. the prior 30 days.

Source: Chicago PD 'Crimes - 2001 to Present'

National
1 story · 1%
Local
21 stories · 6%
Sex offenses
Measured
780 · 1%

780 incidents recorded over the ~90-day window, through Jun 20, 2026.

30-day trend: +17% vs. the prior 30 days.

Source: Chicago PD 'Crimes - 2001 to Present'

National
1 story · 1%
Local
25 stories · 8%
Homicide
Measured
107 · 0%

107 incidents recorded over the ~90-day window, through Jun 20, 2026.

30-day trend: -8% vs. the prior 30 days.

Source: Chicago PD 'Crimes - 2001 to Present'

National
49 stories · 54%
Local
140 stories · 43%
Arson
Measured
91 · 0%

91 incidents recorded over the ~90-day window, through Jun 20, 2026.

30-day trend: -23% vs. the prior 30 days.

Source: Chicago PD 'Crimes - 2001 to Present'

National
8 stories · 9%
Local
9 stories · 3%
What the coverage looked like
How to read this
  • Data runs through June 20, 2026; several sample headlines are dated June 27 to 28, 2026, meaning those stories post-date the data window and are used here only to illustrate coverage patterns, not to reflect incidents counted in the figures.
  • Measured category shares are calculated from 57,619 total incidents across all 14 categories; rounding means shares may not sum to exactly 100%.
  • Story counts reflect the number of published articles indexed, not the volume or prominence of coverage; a single major incident covered by four local outlets (as with the June 28 River North robbery) inflates local story counts for that category without necessarily indicating broader editorial attention.
  • Vandalism (6,297 incidents) and fraud (2,838 incidents) received zero stories in both national and local tracks; absence of coverage should not be read as editorial confirmation that those categories are unimportant, only that neither press tier covered them during this window.
  • The 30-day delta figures (e.g., burglary plus 33%, weapons plus 22%) describe recent directional movement within the window and are not annualized rates; they do not constitute a verdict on full-year trends.
  • Local coverage volume (325 stories) substantially exceeds national (90 stories), so per-category percentages are computed within each track separately and should not be compared as raw counts across tracks.
  • No imputation or extrapolation was performed to fill gaps where coverage was sparse; categories with zero stories in a given track are reported as zero, not estimated.