Cook Political Report

The article discusses the competitive Senate races likely to determine the majority in the upcoming midterms, with Republicans and Democrats expressing confidence in their chances despite challenges like inflation and unpopular party brands. Key races include North Carolina and Maine, where candidates and political dynamics are shaping the outcomes.

The Supreme Court expanded presidential authority while rejecting President Trump's effort to restrict mail-in voting. Trump is focusing on the SAVE Act, and progressive candidates are winning Democratic primaries.

North Carolina Democrats, led by Roy Cooper's Senate campaign, have raised $26 million as of March 2026, significantly outpacing his Republican opponent Michael Whatley, who raised $8 million. The Senate race is no longer considered a toss-up, with Cooper's campaign receiving national support and small-dollar donations.

Jenny Costa Honeycutt won the Republican runoff in South Carolina's 1st Congressional District, advancing to the general election against the Democratic winner. The district has been held by Republicans for most of the past four and a half decades, though the Cook Political Report recently downgraded its race rating to 'Likely Republican'.

Jenny Costa Honeycutt won the Republican runoff in South Carolina's 1st Congressional District, advancing to the general election to succeed Nancy Mace. The district, which has been held by Republicans for most of the past 45 years, will see Honeycutt face the winner of the Democratic runoff.

Cait Conley, an Army veteran and former National Security Council director for counterterrorism, won the Democratic primary in New York’s 17th Congressional District. She will face Republican Rep. Mike Lawler in the general election, with the district considered a key target for Democrats due to a larger Democratic voter registration base. Lawler’s attempts to influence the primary through legal and covert tactics failed, and his fundraising advantage may not offset Conley’s military background and campaign focus.

Cait Conley, a combat veteran, is projected to advance from the Democratic primary to challenge Rep. Mike Lawler in a key House race in New York. The contest will determine the sole toss-up seat in the state, according to nonpartisan analysis.

Tamara Keith and Amy Walter discuss growing divisions within the GOP over Iran policy and internal Democratic conflicts in New York primaries. The article highlights tensions between Trump and GOP leaders on Capitol Hill and progressive versus moderate clashes in Democratic primaries.

The Michigan Farm Bureau endorsed Mike Rogers for U.S. Senate, while Democratic groups endorsed candidates including Mallory McMorrow, Haley Stevens, and Sean McCann. Multiple labor and advocacy organizations supported various Democratic and Republican candidates for congressional and state positions, including Bridget Brink, Matt Maasdam, and John James. Cook Political Report reclassified Michigan’s 4th Congressional District as 'Lean Republican'.

Rep. Tom Kean Jr. will return to Washington after a 100-day absence due to a personal health issue, having missed 135 roll call votes since March. He faces a competitive reelection challenge from Rebecca Bennett in a toss-up district rated by the Cook Political Report.

Rep. Tom Kean Jr. will return to Washington, D.C., after missing 135 roll call votes due to a personal health issue. He faces a reelection challenge from Rebecca Bennett in a competitive New Jersey district, with the race rated a 'toss-up' by Cook Political Report. Kean, who has the endorsement of President Donald Trump, has not disclosed details of his health issue but pledged transparency.

Amy Walter and Jasmine Wright discuss the war's potential impact on the midterm elections, President Trump's deal with Iran, Vice President Vance's promotion of the deal, and California Gov. Gavin Newsom's claim of being investigated by Trump's Justice Department.

North Carolina’s U.S. Senate race is no longer considered a toss-up, with former Gov. Roy Cooper leading over Republican Michael Whatley. Election forecasters Sabato’s Crystal Ball and Cook Political Report have shifted the race to favor Cooper, citing Whatley’s low name recognition and Trump’s unpopularity as headwinds for GOP candidates.

Carrie Buck, endorsed by President Donald Trump and Gov. Joe Lombardo, won the Republican nomination for Nevada's 1st Congressional District, defeating Michael Boris and others. Buck will challenge Democratic Rep. Dina Titus in November in a district rated 'Likely Democrat' by the Cook Political Report.

U.S. Rep. Dina Titus won the Democratic primary in Nevada's 1st Congressional District, defeating challengers Gabriel Cornejo, Joy Hoover, and Luis Paniagua. The district is rated 'Likely Democrat' by the Cook Political Report.

Dina Titus won the Democratic primary in Nevada's 1st Congressional District against Gabriel Cornejo, Joy Hoover, and Luis Paniagua. She secured her party's nomination for an eighth term, leveraging support from labor unions and fundraising advantages. The district is projected to remain Democratic in the general election.

Republicans have an advantage in the Maine primary for an open House seat as voters cast ballots. Rep. Jared Golden (D) is vacating his seat in Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, prompting a Democratic contest for the November ballot.

Republican congressional candidate Jenny Rae Le Roux won a primary in California's 47th Congressional District, claiming residents are frustrated with decades of Democratic governance. She faces incumbent Democrat Dave Min in a race ranked as 'Solid D' by Cook Political Report. Le Roux attributes California's challenges to Democratic leadership, while the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee highlights Min's office recovering over $5.7 million for constituents.

Republican candidate Jenny Rae Le Roux won a primary in California's 47th Congressional District, positioning her against incumbent Democrat Dave Min. Le Roux attributes the political shift to frustration with decades of Democratic control, citing issues like fraud and unresponsive representation. The race is rated 'Solid D' by Cook Political Report, with both candidates making claims about constituent support.

The Cook Political Report adjusted the Iowa Senate race rating from 'likely Republican' to 'lean Republican' following state Rep. Josh Turek's primary victory with 63% of the vote. This shift reflects Democratic momentum in the race.

Democrat Rebecca Bennett will challenge Rep. Tom Kean Jr. in November's general election. Kean has been absent from public view since March due to an undisclosed health issue. Bennett won the Democratic primary for the New Jersey House seat, which is considered a toss-up.

Two Iowa House seats are contested in the primary elections, with Republican representatives Ashley Hinson and Randy Feenstra seeking higher office. The 2nd and 4th Congressional Districts are solid Republican strongholds, while the 1st and 3rd districts are rated as toss-ups by Cook Political Report.

Ken Paxton's GOP primary victory sets up a Senate race against Democratic nominee James Talarico. Talarico raised $3 million in 24 hours after Paxton's win, while the race shifted from 'likely Republican' to 'lean Republican.' The outcome could influence Texas's political trajectory and national electoral dynamics.

Democrats in Maine’s 2nd Congressional District support Senate candidate Graham Platner despite party backlash over his controversial social media posts and a covered-up tattoo resembling a Nazi symbol. Three leading Democratic contenders for an open House seat have endorsed Platner, while centrists within the party criticize the alignment, complicating efforts to retain a swing seat in a Republican-leaning district.

The Cook Political Report revised its Texas Senate race rating to 'lean Republican' after Ken Paxton defeated Sen. John Cornyn in the GOP runoff. Paxton, who received a last-minute endorsement from President Trump, secured the victory despite Cornyn being a senior Republican senator.

Trump-backed Republican Jon Bonck won the GOP runoff for Texas’ 38th Congressional District, defeating pilot Shelly deZevallos. He will face Democrat Melissa McDonough in November, with Republicans heavily favored in the solidly Republican district. The race became an open-seat contest after Rep. Wesley Hunt pursued a U.S. Senate bid.

Republicans face challenges in retaining control of the U.S. House due to low poll ratings and voter dissatisfaction with President Donald Trump. GOP gerrymandering efforts in Southern states aim to offset potential losses, but analysts suggest these may not be sufficient to counter a difficult national environment marked by economic issues and historical midterm trends.

Vice President JD Vance promoted Republican congressional candidates in Kansas City while standing in a newly gerrymandered district. Republicans face challenges retaining their House majority due to low Trump approval, economic issues, and a historically difficult midterm environment, despite recent gerrymandering efforts in Southern states.

Idaho Governor Brad Little won the Republican primary for a third term, backed by President Donald Trump, after running on deregulation and tax cuts. He defeated seven opponents, including retired police officer Mark Fitzpatrick. Little's re-election contest is rated as 'solid Republican' by the Cook Political Report.

Pennsylvanians are voting in House primary contests, including three GOP-held seats rated as toss up races. Republican Reps. Ryan Mackenzie, Rob Bresnahan, and Scott Perry are running. The primaries are taking place on Tuesday.

Democrat Tina Shah, a New Jersey House candidate, supports taxpayer-funded transgender healthcare for minors, framing it as a 'no-brainer' and aligning with former Surgeon General Vivek Murthy. Her stance has drawn criticism from Republicans, who accuse her of endorsing 'radical policies,' while Democrats debate the party's approach to transgender issues amid shifting medical group positions.

The Supreme Court's decision limiting the Voting Rights Act's provision for majority-minority districts could lead to redrawing of seven House districts to favor Republicans, according to Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball. Both nonpartisan election analysts identified the districts at risk of shifting to GOP control following the ruling.

The Supreme Court's ruling on partisan gerrymandering is expected to reduce competitive House districts in the 2026 midterms, shifting political focus to primaries dominated by party loyalists. Analysts warn this diminishes public influence on elections and lowers voter turnout, with over 400 House seats already considered 'decided' months ahead of the midterms.

Rep. Cory Mills, a Florida Republican facing allegations of sexual misconduct and campaign finance violations, has drawn a GOP challenger, Ryan Elijah, in his re-election bid. The House Ethics Committee is investigating Mills, whose re-election campaign is struggling financially and politically.

Rep. Cory Mills, a Florida Republican facing sexual misconduct allegations and a House Ethics Committee investigation, has drawn a GOP primary challenger, Ryan Elijah, a former FOX 35 Orlando news anchor. Mills, who denies wrongdoing and is endorsed by Donald Trump, faces financial struggles and a downgraded race outlook, with Democrats targeting his seat as a key flip opportunity.

Rep. Tom Kean Jr. (R-N.J.) has missed over 50 votes due to an unspecified health issue, straining House Republicans' slim majority as critical legislation approaches. Democrats criticize his absence and personal stock trades, while Speaker Mike Johnson expresses confidence in his recovery.

Democrats have a six-point advantage over Republicans in key battleground districts, with 50% of voters preferring the average Democrat over a generic Republican, according to a Cook Political Report poll of 36 districts.

The Iowa governor's race is becoming unexpectedly competitive as Democrat Rob Sand challenges retiring Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds, with the Cook Political Report reclassifying the race as a 'toss-up' for the first Democratic gubernatorial win in nearly two decades.

Republicans face challenges in midterm elections due to Iran-related issues and affordability concerns. President Trump's low approval ratings and rising gas prices undermine GOP arguments on inflation and economic policies.

Republican Rep. Mike Lawler is interfering in the Democratic primary for his NY-17 seat by sending misleading texts and challenging opponent signatures. The Cook Political Report has reclassified the district as a toss-up, increasing his reelection challenges.