southeast U.S.

The National Hurricane Center monitors a low-development-odds weather system off the southeast U.S. coast, linked to remnants of thunderstorms and a stalled front. Development chances are 10% as of Monday, down from 20% on Sunday, due to factors like wind shear and cooler waters. The system is expected to move westward toward the Carolinas by late week under a high-pressure ridge.

Meteorologists are monitoring an elongated low-pressure area off the southeast U.S. and stalled frontal zone for potential tropical development by mid-to-late July. Computer models show a 10% chance of development, with warm subtropical Atlantic waters and reduced wind shear as factors. Any storm would likely form near land and steer toward the U.S. around the July 4th holiday weekend.

June is historically the least active month of the hurricane season, with only three Category 3+ hurricanes recorded in June since records began. Early June tropical development typically occurs near the U.S. in the western Caribbean, Gulf, and southeast Atlantic, driven by stalled fronts and the Central American Gyre. Current models show no immediate organized storm activity, but the Madden-Julian Oscillation may promote storminess by mid-June, though its influence is expected to be weaker due to a developing El Niño.