Selic rate

Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) will announce its interest-rate decision on August 5, 2026, with markets expecting a fourth consecutive 0.25 percentage point cut, reducing the Selic rate to 14% from 14.25%. B3 options trading indicates a high probability of this outcome.

Brazil’s federal debt reached R$9.268 trillion (~US$1.82 trillion) in June 2026, a 2.61% monthly increase. Nearly half (49.32%) of the debt is tied to the floating Selic rate, affecting servicing costs. The economy also created a net 145,161 formal jobs in June 2026.

Brazil traders anticipate a 75.5% probability of a 0.25-point Selic rate cut at the August meeting, with a 21% chance of holding rates unchanged. Brazil's inflation target remains set at 3.00% with a ±1.5 percentage-point band from 2025 onward.

The Dow Jones reached 40,211 amid soft U.S. CPI data, while Brent crude approached $85 due to risks near the Hormuz Strait. Emerging markets and Brazil remain cautious, with Brazil's real stable but uncertainty around the Selic rate path.

Brazil's Ibovespa stock index surged to 177,866 points, its best close since May, driven by a cooler June IPCA inflation reading that renewed expectations of Selic rate cuts. The Brazilian real remained stable near R$5.11 against the US dollar.

Brazil's inflation has cooled with a 0.41% rise in early June, the second consecutive monthly slowdown below expectations. The central bank has reduced the benchmark Selic rate to 14.25%, marking the third consecutive quarter-point cut. Annual inflation was near 4.7% in May.

Brazilian corporate-bond issuance hit a record R$492.8bn in 2025 despite the benchmark Selic rate remaining at 14.25%, a twenty-year high. Most funds are used for infrastructure and refinancing older debt.

The article explains the Ibovespa, Brazil's stock market via the B3 exchange, and outlines how foreign investors can purchase Brazilian stocks in 2026, including details on the index level, Selic rate, and tax considerations.

Brazil’s central bank interest rate-setting committee, Copom, unanimously lowered the benchmark Selic rate by 25 basis points to 14.25%, citing risks from election-year fiscal stimulus and the impact of a likely El Niño weather pattern on inflation.

Brazil's central bank reduced the benchmark Selic rate to 14.25% but adopted stronger language regarding inflation, indicating the rate-cutting cycle may be nearing its end.

Bank of America has reduced its positioning on Brazil and increased exposure to Chile and Colombia. The shift is driven by expectations of Brazil's Selic rate reaching 14.25% by 2026 with limited further rate cuts.