Copom

B3's Copom options indicate a 75.5% probability of a 0.25-point Selic rate cut in August, marking a shift from June's expectation of a hold. The article notes this change in market expectations for Brazil's central bank policy.

Brazil's B3 pre-market setup for Monday highlights shifting odds for the Copom August meeting following hawkish minutes. The Focus survey is scheduled at 11:25 BRT, and Petrobras remains active.

The week of July 20–24, 2026, features Latin American central banks remaining inactive, shifting market focus to the ECB rate decision and US tech earnings. Upcoming Copom and BCCh meetings are highlighted as key events.

Brazil's B3 is expected to open cautiously as traders assess the likelihood of a Copom policy pause in August, July retail sales data, and a mixed global market environment.

The Ibovespa's open is influenced by June IPCA data and Copom's August decision, with analysis focusing on Selic rate odds, USD/BRL exchange rate levels, and corporate news. The article was first published on The Rio Times.

Brazil's IPCA inflation reading is set to close the week on Friday, marking the first full print since the Copom rate cut. Key events include FOMC minutes on Wednesday, RBNZ's decision on Tuesday night, and Mexico's June CPI data on Thursday morning.

Key market events for June 22–26, 2026 include Brazil's Copom minutes on Tuesday explaining its recent rate decision, global flash PMIs released the same day, and a cluster of major economic data releases on Thursday: US Core PCE, Brazil's mid-month IPCA-15, and Mexico's Banxico decision.

Brazil’s central bank interest rate-setting committee, Copom, unanimously lowered the benchmark Selic rate by 25 basis points to 14.25%, citing risks from election-year fiscal stimulus and the impact of a likely El Niño weather pattern on inflation.

Brazil's economy grew in April according to the central bank's GDP preview, showing resilience. This growth reduces the central bank's flexibility to cut interest rates as the Copom committee deliberates.

The week of June 8–12, 2026, features key economic events including the US CPI release on Wednesday, the ECB raising rates to 2.40% on Thursday, the BoC maintaining rates on Wednesday, and Brazil's IPCA data on Friday ahead of the June 17 Copom meeting. Oil-shock inflation remains the central theme.