IPCA

The Ibovespa's open is influenced by June IPCA data and Copom's August decision, with analysis focusing on Selic rate odds, USD/BRL exchange rate levels, and corporate news. The article was first published on The Rio Times.

Brazil's Ibovespa stock index surged to 177,866 points, its best close since May, driven by a cooler June IPCA inflation reading that renewed expectations of Selic rate cuts. The Brazilian real remained stable near R$5.11 against the US dollar.

Brazil's pre-market setup shows the Ibovespa near 170,700 and the real at 5.15 as markets anticipate the June IPCA inflation data and shifting expectations for an August Selic rate cut. The article highlights key financial indicators and upcoming economic announcements.

Trump states the Iran ceasefire is 'over', leading to a jump in oil prices and yields reaching 4.60%, while the Dow drops 577 points. Brazil's real remains near 5.16 ahead of the IPCA report.

Brazil's IPCA inflation reading is set to close the week on Friday, marking the first full print since the Copom rate cut. Key events include FOMC minutes on Wednesday, RBNZ's decision on Tuesday night, and Mexico's June CPI data on Thursday morning.

The June 8 Focus survey raised the median 2026 Selic rate forecast to 13.5%, the first increase after a period of stability. The 2027 forecast also rose to 11.5%, while 2028 and 2029 forecasts remained at 10.00%. The 2026 IPCA inflation estimate increased from 5.09% to an unspecified higher value.