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How predictable is the Supreme Court from oral argument?
The article examines how predictable Supreme Court decisions are based on oral arguments, analyzing 56 cases from October 2025 to April 2026. It uses examples like Louisiana v. Callais, Trump v. Barbara, and Chatrie v. United States to show varying degrees of predictability, concluding that while oral arguments provide meaningful insights, they are not fully reliable predictors of outcomes.
Mentioned
Louisiana v. CallaistopicTrump v. BarbaratopicChatrie v. United StatestopicSupreme CourtorganizationClarence ThomaspersonSamuel AlitopersonNeil GorsuchpersonBrett KavanaughpersonJohn RobertspersonMartin–Quinn ideological scorestopicFourth Amendmenttopicgeofence warrantstopicSCOTUSblogorganizationAssociated PressorganizationThe Washington PostorganizationCBS Newsorganization
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