wind shear

South Florida faces storm chances today with gusty winds, heavy rain, and lightning. Storms will continue through Friday, with heavy rain and potential flooding expected, before drier conditions return next week. A tropical wave and strong wind shear in the Caribbean and SW Atlantic suppress storm development, aided by El Niño conditions.

The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season has one of the slowest starts this century, but August activity becomes a meaningful predictor for the rest of the season. Environmental factors like El Niño-induced wind shear and cooler water temperatures suggest below-average hurricane activity, though August's outcome will provide clearer insights.

August typically marks an active phase of the Atlantic hurricane season, but this year's conditions—tepid tropical waters, high wind shear, and sinking air—are deterring tropical development. A global velocity potential anomaly pattern linked to a historic El Niño is creating stable, high-shear environments, likely leading to a quieter-than-usual August with potential for subtropical activity later in the month.

A new tropical weather area in the northern Gulf, first mentioned in previous newsletters, has been added to the National Hurricane Center’s outlook. It features a non-tropical low-pressure system forming in Florida’s Big Bend, with potential for heavy rainfall but low development odds due to wind shear and dry air.

A strong El Niño is developing this year, with NOAA's RONI index nearing the threshold for classification. Strong El Niños typically reduce Atlantic hurricane activity by increasing wind shear but can shift seasonal storm distribution, leading to an earlier end to the season. Activity may peak later in August and decline quickly in October.