Clues August will open with a whisper across the Atlantic

August typically marks an active phase of the Atlantic hurricane season, but this year's conditions—tepid tropical waters, high wind shear, and sinking air—are deterring tropical development. A global velocity potential anomaly pattern linked to a historic El Niño is creating stable, high-shear environments, likely leading to a quieter-than-usual August with potential for subtropical activity later in the month.