Dossier
Strength in Numbers
Coverage of Strength in Numbers in the Nexus archive.
- Why polling is so prone to prediction problems in primary races
Primary polls are often imprecise, failing to accurately predict outcomes in races like those held in Michigan and Wisconsin. These polling challenges occur because primary voters are concentrated within a single party's ideological spectrum, making it difficult for pollsters to account for the large numbers of candidates and the ease with which voters can shift support between them.