Rory Johnston

President Trump has managed to keep oil and gas prices relatively stable through promises of ending the Iran conflict, but his influence on markets is waning as global oil supplies dwindle and midterm elections approach. Energy markets remain unresponsive to his shifting policies, raising concerns about Republican electoral prospects.

Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz led to predictions of oil prices exceeding $150 per barrel, but prices remained below $100 due to China's sudden halving of oil imports. China's reduced demand, equivalent to 5 million barrels daily, offset supply losses and prevented catastrophic price surges, though its methods and sustainability remain unclear.

Rory Johnston discusses why his prediction of $200 oil prices did not materialize. Oil extraction is occurring near Monahans, Texas.

The Strait of Hormuz has mostly reopened, and while crude prices have risen since the Iran conflict began, predictions of $200-per-barrel Brent oil did not materialize. Rory Johnston, founder of the Commodity Context newsletter, discusses this in a podcast, revisiting his earlier analysis from the start of the conflict.

The article discusses the ongoing Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, noting that oil prices have remained stable despite predictions of a spike. It introduces the TACO theory, which suggests President Trump will eventually end the conflict to avoid economic fallout, creating a dynamic equilibrium between market expectations and his decisions.

The article suggests that China's government may be releasing petroleum from strategic reserves into the market, potentially preventing a sharper rise in oil prices. This analysis is based on a recent Commodity Context newsletter by Rory Johnston.