Gregory Brew

The U.S. and Iran signed a memorandum to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but Iran later claimed it was closed again, citing Israeli attacks and U.S. 'bad faith.' The U.S. insists the strait remains open, with increased shipping traffic, while Iran's new authority mandates specific routes and insurance requirements. Shipping companies, not governments, ultimately determine the strait's operational status.

President Donald Trump claims a U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz will be signed on Sunday, his 80th birthday, but Iran denies the deal will finalize on that day, calling Trump's insistence 'strange.' Pakistan, acting as a mediator, anticipates an electronic signing soon, while Iran demands immediate sanctions relief and asset unfreezing, which the U.S. opposes. Analysts suggest Iran may avoid giving Trump a birthday 'gift' by delaying the agreement.

Gas prices are unlikely to return to pre-war levels anytime soon, even if a US-Iran peace deal is reached. The average US price for regular gasoline was $4.54 per gallon on Wednesday, compared to just under $3 pre-war. Prices may take until early/mid 2027 to recover.

The U.S. blockade in the Gulf of Oman has denied Iran $4.8 billion in oil revenue by redirecting 40 vessels and blocking 31 tankers carrying 53 million barrels of oil. Iran is using older tankers as floating storage and longer routes to bypass U.S. interdiction, while the Pentagon emphasizes the economic pressure as a key tool in negotiations.

Iran is leveraging oil storage capacity and alternative export methods to resist a U.S. blockade on its oil exports, according to analysts. Experts suggest Iran can maintain production for weeks or months by using floating storage and smuggling networks, challenging initial estimates of a two-week window. The situation highlights tensions over the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's economic resilience.