S&P Global Energy

Seven OPEC+ countries, including Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Iraq, agreed to increase oil production by 188,000 barrels per day in August to address falling prices. The decision follows a U.S.-Iran interim deal that eased tensions over the Strait of Hormuz but has not fully restored pre-war shipping levels, with oil prices now near $72 per barrel.

Energy experts predict oil and gas supplies will take months to normalize after an Iran deal ends the Strait of Hormuz conflict, due to shipping delays, refining challenges, and security concerns. Ships stranded in the Persian Gulf and paused Middle Eastern oil extraction complicate rapid recovery, though initial oil price drops followed the agreement.

Energy experts say oil and gasoline supplies may take months to normalize after an Iran war agreement and Strait of Hormuz reopening, due to stranded ships, security concerns, and slow restarts of production and infrastructure. Countries like Iraq face longer recovery times, while Saudi Arabia and the UAE may resume operations faster.

Experts say oil and gas supplies may take months to return to normal after an agreement to end the Iran war and open the Strait of Hormuz. High prices and supply issues persist due to delayed shipping, refining challenges, and security concerns, with countries like Iraq facing longer recovery times.

Energy experts say oil and gasoline supplies may take months to normalize after an agreement to end the Iran war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, due to stranded ships, security concerns, and slow restarts of operations. Factors like shipping delays, refining processes, and paused oil extraction in the Middle East contribute to prolonged supply disruptions.

Energy experts predict oil and gasoline supplies will take months to normalize after an agreement to end the Iran war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Challenges include stranded ships in the Persian Gulf, slow shipping and refining processes, and uncertainty about the security and stability of the reopened strait.

US producer prices rose 6.5% year-over-year in May 2025, driven by a 23% monthly surge in wholesale gasoline prices linked to the Iran war. Core wholesale prices increased 0.4% monthly and 4.9% annually, with inflation outpacing the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Energy disruptions from the Strait of Hormuz shutdown threaten to extend supply issues into the third quarter.

US producer prices rose 6.5% annually in May 2025, driven by energy price surges linked to the Iran war, marking the largest yearly jump since 2022. Core wholesale prices increased 4.9% year-over-year, with inflation outpacing the Federal Reserve's 2% target and potentially prompting interest rate hikes later in the year.

The US faces challenges in expanding its LNG export capacity due to capital constraints and shifting market dynamics. Despite a global gas shortage caused by geopolitical disruptions, private equity struggles to fund new LNG terminals as market risks rise and traditional long-term contracts decline.

Gas prices are unlikely to return to pre-war levels anytime soon, even if a US-Iran peace deal is reached. The average US price for regular gasoline was $4.54 per gallon on Wednesday, compared to just under $3 pre-war. Prices may take until early/mid 2027 to recover.

U.S. oil exports are surging due to the Iran war and Strait of Hormuz blockage, but infrastructure limits on the Gulf Coast may cap growth. Experts predict a 'soft ceiling' for crude exports and note declining domestic fuel inventories could force refiners to reduce exports.