European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
Coverage of European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts in the Nexus archive.
- Strengthening El Nino likely to 'rank among largest' on record: US agency
The El Nino weather pattern is strengthening and likely to rank among the largest on record when it peaks between October and December, according to the US Climate Prediction Centre. With an 81% chance of being 'very strong' (2.0°C above an index) and 97% chance of persisting through early 2027, El Nino is expected to drive global temperature rises and disrupt weather patterns worldwide.
- This year's El Nino likely to become record-breaker: top expert
This year's El Niño is forecasted to become a record-breaking event due to its extreme strength, according to Tim Stockdale of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. The phenomenon is expected to cause droughts, floods, and other climate extremes globally, with impacts including suppressed monsoons in South Asia, drier conditions in parts of Africa and Brazil, and increased rainfall in the Horn of Africa and western South America.
- Heatwave grips Eastern Europe after Germany weather breaks records
A deadly heatwave that broke temperature records in western Europe has shifted east to scorch Hungary, Romania, and the Balkans. Budapest is expected to exceed 40°C (104F), with Belgrade and Bucharest reaching 38°C and 37°C, respectively. Red extreme heat warnings are in effect for Poland, Hungary, and Romania.
- AI weather models changing the hurricane forecast game
AI weather models outperformed traditional physics-based models in the 2025 hurricane season, with Google’s DeepMind excelling in intensity forecasts. Unlike high-resolution models requiring supercomputers, AI forecasts use historical data and atmospheric snapshots to generate rapid predictions on standard hardware.
- Mexico, Italy and others see up to two more months of heat stress than in the 1970s, study says
Mexico, Italy, Kenya, and other regions now experience one to two additional months of heat stress compared to the 1970s, according to a study in Nature Climate Change. The research attributes this increase to climate change driven by fossil fuel emissions, with heat stress measured using factors like temperature, humidity, and wind speed. Some areas, including Southern Africa and parts of the U.S., face up to 50 more days annually of strong heat stress.
- Mexico, Italy and others see up to two more months of heat stress than in the 1970s, study says
Mexico, Italy, Kenya, and other regions are experiencing up to two additional months of heat stress compared to the 1970s, according to a study in Nature Climate Change. The research attributes this increase to climate change from fossil fuel use, with heat stress days worsening due to higher temperatures and humidity.
- AI weather startup outperforms official forecasts
WindBorne Systems, an AI weather forecasting startup, outperformed government-run systems with five-day forecasts as accurate as one-day physics models. AI is increasingly reshaping weather forecasting, with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts adopting AI after a 2024 Google DeepMind model victory. Private forecasts are gaining relevance amid U.S. National Weather Service funding cuts and rising demand for energy projections linked to renewable energy.