Prediction markets’ reputation comes back to earth after surprise result in Wisconsin

Prediction market platforms Polymarket and Kalshi experienced a setback after Francesca Hong lost the Wisconsin governor’s primary to David Crowley, despite both markets giving her high probabilities of winning. In reaction to the surprise result, Polymarket deleted a boastful prediction post, while Kalshi argued that low assigned probabilities still represented an available chance. This event emphasizes that these market platforms are forecasting tools and not foolproof predictors.