BUSINESSMARKETWATCH
Why prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi often fail the average investor
Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi often fail to benefit average investors, as big traders do not always provide reliable outcomes.
Related Signal
Adjacent reporting
- 84% of Polymarket traders are losing money. That says a lot about who prediction markets are really built for
- Who Wins and Who Loses in Prediction Markets? Evidence from Polymarket
- Why Almost Everyone Loses–Except a Few Sharks–On Prediction Markets
- When are prediction markets most helpful? Evercore ISI has a formula