Dossier
military and defence actions
Coverage of military and defence actions in the Nexus archive.
- More than half of all "long shot" bets on Polymarket pay off
A report by the Anti-Corruption Data Collective reveals that over half of 'long-shot' bets on military action on Polymarket succeed, raising concerns about prediction markets' impact on sensitive information security. Long-shot bets of $2,500 or more at 35% or lower odds had a 52% win rate in military/defense markets, significantly higher than 25% in politics-focused markets and 14% overall.