Semafor

Ukraine and its neighbors are skeptical of US support against Russian aggression and are preparing for potential conflict. Countries from Poland to Finland are stockpiling resources and fortifying defenses, while concerns about US President Donald Trump persist in Latvia and Kyiv.

The Atlantic is expanding its video podcast offerings, including new shows hosted by Adam Harris and Hanna Rosin, and has seen a 104% year-over-year revenue increase. The company has doubled its video team and plans to launch a weekly podcast with David Brooks later this year, focusing on YouTube for growth.

Global central banks are responding to the Iran war's energy crisis with varied strategies. The US Fed kept rates steady but hinted at future hikes, while the ECB and Japan's central bank raised rates to combat inflation. The People’s Bank of China may ease rates due to growth concerns, and higher US borrowing costs could impact African debt.

US gaming industry groups have urged Congress to ban sports and casino-style prediction markets in a proposed crypto market structure bill, according to a report by Semafor.

Todd Heimes from Amazon Business discusses how the platform is transforming organizational buying by reducing friction through selection, fast delivery, and trust. The interview highlights Amazon Business's goal of making business purchases smarter and more strategic.

The New York Times is reviewing Nicholas Kristof's columns to determine if additional clarifications are needed after he failed to disclose campaign donations from individuals he wrote about, including Bill Gates, Bob Sternfels, and Joseph Nye. Kristof previously ran for Oregon governor and returned to the Times in 2022 after being deemed ineligible due to residency requirements.

The Treasury Department is defending its decision to exempt US companies from a global minimum tax, which has allowed them to avoid $40 billion in taxes, according to a report by The New York Times. Deputy Assistant Secretary Rebecca Burch described the exemption as a 'coexistence mechanism' tied to US sovereignty and compliance challenges, not a repeal of US tax obligations.

Rand Paul and Donald Trump have improved their relationship, with Paul supporting Trump on immigration funding and Iran policies, leading to praise and a White House invitation. Paul's alignment with Trump includes backing voter ID and border security, while maintaining his libertarian principles.

Donald Trump will celebrate his 80th birthday with a UFC fight and motocross competition at the White House. The event aims to counter recent political setbacks but risks distracting from midterms, according to analysts. The New York Times and Semafor report mixed reactions, noting potential energizing effects on supporters versus voter exhaustion.

Chuck Schumer and Susan Collins are engaged in a competitive race for Maine's Senate seat, with Schumer criticizing Collins's support for Trump and Supreme Court votes. Collins defends her record, highlighting federal funding for Maine and denying constant Trump defense. Both emphasize strategies to influence the Senate majority.

Box CEO Aaron Levie stated that most companies did not budget for the high costs of AI tokens, leading to unexpected expenses from coding agents. Box uses AI internally and anticipates increased compute spending as AI tools expand into new workflows. Levie emphasized AI's role in job creation, with Box adding 13 AI-related roles.

Sean McCann leads Rep. Bill Huizenga by three points in a Michigan House race according to a Democratic poll. McCann's campaign outraised Huizenga by $400,000 in Q1 2026, and both campaigns have made public statements about the race.

The House of Representatives approved new funding for Ukraine after 18 Republicans defied GOP leaders by voting with Democrats. Reporters Eleanor Mueller and Igor Bobic discussed the issue on 'The Takeout'.

The Treasury Department, along with regulators, directed banks to flag suspicious activities linked to undocumented immigrants, including identity theft and payroll fraud, and to assess risks from using taxpayer identification numbers. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau had already acted on the executive order, and House Financial Services Chair French Hill questioned the policy's feasibility for banks.

Business leaders at New York Tech Week discussed challenges in measuring AI's return on investment, with some citing 'massive over-investment' and others attributing spending cuts to difficulty quantifying results. Software engineering workflows, particularly in coding capabilities, are driving costs, while AI companies focusing on measurable tasks like sales and customer experience may see near-term benefits.

The U.S.-Israeli war against Iran is affecting Gulf States and their economies. Semafor's Mohammed Sergie provides insight on CBS News.

US oil reserves are at their lowest since 2004 due to energy disruptions from the Iran war, but global adaptation is mitigating impacts. China's reduced oil imports have shielded the market, and a study shows the US is less affected than the 1970s energy crisis, aided by domestic production. Asia and Europe are accelerating renewable energy transitions amid reduced reliance on Gulf exports.

Japan’s prime minister courted Pacific island nations at a Tokyo summit to counter China’s influence, part of an anti-China strategy involving military exercises in the Philippines, military vessel sales to Australia, and a stealth fighter partnership with Britain and Italy. The government aims to strengthen these nations' 'autonomy and resilience' amid growing regional wariness of China’s rise.

Former Navy Secretary John Phelan's draft shipbuilding proposal, circulated before his firing, was largely copied by his successor, Acting Navy Secretary Hung Cao, in the Trump administration's official 2027 plan. The similarity raises questions about Phelan's dismissal, with Trump attributing it to conflicts over shipbuilding, while Cao emphasized a 'shipbuilding renaissance' to counter adversaries like China.

Tsinghua University School of Economics and Management board has become less Chinese over the past decade, with U.S. representatives making up 53% of the board in 2025, up from 47% in 2016. The board, which unites global CEOs with Chinese government, academic, and business leaders, is where Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang is reportedly set to join, sparking backlash from some China hawks in Washington.

A bipartisan pair of senators, Chuck Grassley and Elizabeth Warren, are introducing legislation to require defense contractors and subcontractors to disclose beneficial owners and foreign influence, lowering the contract threshold from $5 million to $500,000. The Pentagon has not commented on the proposal.

Oil prices rose following renewed US-Iran airstrikes, escalating tensions over the Strait of Hormuz's transit rules. Despite earlier ceasefire progress, Morgan Stanley warned of worsening global oil market conditions, while stagnant tanker insurance rates indicated unresolved regional security concerns.

President Donald Trump expressed skepticism about reaching a 'perfect' deal to end the Iran war, stating the U.S. would not settle for anything less than a 'great deal.' He suggested accepting a short-term agreement to extend negotiations on Iran’s enriched uranium but emphasized long-term terms must resolve the issue. Trump also linked potential Iran deals to other nations normalizing relations with Israel via the Abraham Accords.

Job acceptance rates at major companies like Deel have dropped to 0.2%, falling below Harvard's acceptance rate, as AI screening tools eliminate most applicants. The trend has made it increasingly difficult for job seekers, especially new graduates, to stand out in competitive hiring processes.

Semafor Tech Summit announces a new event series called 'Semafor Tech: First Principles' that will examine second and third-order impacts of emerging technologies like quantum computers, fusion reactors, and humanoid robots. The summit will use first principles thinking to connect technical developments to real-world impacts on markets, labor, and geopolitics over the next six months.

American philanthropy is at a pivotal moment, evolving from filling national gaps to seeding innovations that become public goods. Semafor and partners are convening funders and innovators to explore how philanthropy can advance solutions for workforce mobility and community resilience as the U.S. approaches its 250th anniversary. The discussion will address how technology, grassroots initiatives, and catalytic investment can create durable public impact.

Rep. Maxine Waters stated that she expects the Trump administration would not comply with Democratic House oversight if Democrats win the majority in November. Waters, the top Democrat on the House Financial Services Committee, plans to investigate potential corruption related to cryptocurrency and other proposals. She also discussed her priority for a trillion-dollar housing affordability bill if Democrats gain control.

Minnesota became the first US state to ban prediction markets, prompting a White House lawsuit to overturn the ban. The markets, designed to forecast future events using crowd wisdom, have faced controversies over insider trading scandals involving sensitive military operations. Companies like Polymarket argue these platforms are more valuable as risk management tools than betting platforms.

President Trump adopted a more diplomatic tone regarding Cuba, suggesting a deal is possible while his administration maintains pressure on the Cuban government. Trump stated Cuba is a "failed nation" needing US help but indicated regime change is not his immediate priority. The US is expected to indict former Cuban president Raúl Castro on Wednesday.

Joe Weisenthal, co-host of Bloomberg's finance show, dismisses AI doomsday predictions and expresses optimism about AI's impact on jobs and wealth inequality. He argues that AI still has limitations in finance and numbers, and believes human expertise will remain valuable. Weisenthal emphasizes the importance of staying informed through platforms like Twitter to anticipate emerging trends.

President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping held a summit where the two countries shifted from escalating trade tensions to improved relations. A year prior, the US and China had raised tariffs on each other to over 100%, effectively halting trade between them. The meeting marked a significant thaw in US-China relations after years of Cold War-style tensions.

President Donald Trump announced that China agreed to purchase 200 Boeing jets during a Beijing summit. The deal is one of several being negotiated, including potential approvals for Nvidia chip sales to Chinese firms and fast-tracked regulatory approval for Chinese investments in US companies. However, analysts express skepticism about the tangible implementation of these agreements given both countries' inconsistent track records on trade commitments.

Despite doomsday predictions about AI eliminating jobs, the reality is more nuanced. Tech companies know how to implement AI and drive layoffs, but most non-tech companies lack the expertise to adopt it meaningfully. AI excels at specific technical tasks like coding but isn't broadly superior across all business functions.

Beijing plans to pressure Donald Trump on US arms sales to Taiwan during discussions, raising concerns that the president may alter US policy toward the island. Trump's eagerness for trade deals with China could lead him to soften the US defense commitment to Taiwan, which Beijing considers a renegade province. Taiwan's legislature has approved a defense budget for US weapons while lawmakers warn against using the island as a bargaining chip.

President Trump will sign an executive order to expand workers' access to retirement accounts and establish a government website, TrumpIRA.gov, for comparing private-sector retirement accounts.

Letterboxd, a social platform for film enthusiasts, is reportedly seeking a new owner. Potential buyers include Versant, parent company of CNBC and MS NOW, and Hollywood media company The Ankler, according to Semafor.

Washington's media landscape is being reshaped by independent and startup outlets hosting major events during the White House Correspondents' Dinner, challenging traditional power brokers. Partisan divisions and corporate interests, such as Paramount's pending Warner Bros. Discovery takeover, also influenced the event's dynamics.

Tech billionaires like Elon Musk are advocating for universal basic income (UBI) as AI-driven layoffs increase, though some lawmakers remain skeptical. Reporters Daniella Diaz and Nicholas Wu discuss the issue on 'The Takeout,' highlighting political and economic tensions around AI's impact on employment.

Podcasters who helped Donald Trump win the 2024 election, including Joe Rogan and Theo Von, are criticizing his current policies as broken promises, risking the erosion of his political coalition. Many argue Trump's decisions on war and immigration contradict his campaign pledges, with figures like Rogan and comedian Dave Smith expressing disillusionment over his alignment with Israel and military actions.