Saeed Jalili

Iran’s leaders are united in maintaining a tough stance in the war but divided on the end goal, with hardliners seeking total victory and others favoring negotiated deals. A failed April ceasefire with the U.S. and renewed strikes have intensified tensions, while the new supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, remains in hiding and his stance is unclear.

The US-Iran memorandum of understanding ends the war with Iran gaining released assets and relaxed oil restrictions in exchange for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The deal faces opposition from Iranian hard-liners but has support from military and political leaders including Qalibaf, Araghchi, and President Pezeshkian.

An interim agreement to end the U.S. and Israeli war against Iran is likely, with Donald Trump potentially acceding to Iranian demands. The deal may open the Strait of Hormuz, release some of Iran's frozen assets, and address Iran's nuclear program by allowing uranium dilution domestically. Despite unresolved economic and infrastructural challenges, Iran's leaders feel triumphant, having survived a major military conflict and secured a deal better than previous offers.

Iran's U.S. nuclear negotiating team is in turmoil as Saeed Jalili, an ultra-hardline conservative and leader of the Stability Front, is poised to replace Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. Jalili's potential appointment signals a harder stance in nuclear talks, amid internal regime disputes and economic crises. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi also seeks a leading role in diplomacy, highlighting competing factions within Iran's political establishment.

Iran's leadership survived a U.S.-Israeli bombardment that killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, with his son Mojtaba Khamenei succeeding him amid uncertainty over his role. The Supreme National Security Council, including figures like Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf and Saeed Jalili, now centralizes power, but internal divisions and negotiations with the U.S. pose new challenges.