Natasha Kaneva

Global oil prices remain relatively stable despite a major supply disruption, as factors like bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, reduced Chinese stockpiling, and strategic reserve use temper the market. Analysts warn that buffers may deplete by July, potentially pushing prices toward $150 per barrel if ceasefire talks fail.

Tensions between the US and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz are creating uncertainty in global energy markets, with conflicting statements from both sides and mixed analyst predictions about military escalation risks and oil price impacts. While some analysts predict the strait will reopen by June, others estimate a 70% chance of renewed military conflict, potentially disrupting oil supplies through July. New infrastructure projects are being developed to bypass the strait and reduce dependence on this critical waterway.