Mexican peso

The third edition of the MND Peso Index™ found the Mexican peso was overvalued by 2.91% against the US dollar in June 2026, down from 4.03% in May. The overvaluation decrease was primarily due to the peso's 1.02% depreciation against the dollar between late May and late June 2026.

Foreign exchange experts predict the Mexican peso will trade at 17.78 to the US dollar in 12 months, a slight depreciation from its current rate. The Bank of Mexico has maintained steady interest rates, which analysts say supports the peso, though uncertainty over the USMCA trade agreement weakens economic outlooks.

Mexico’s central bank (Banxico) maintained its benchmark interest rate at 6.50% amid declining inflation, with all board members voting to keep the rate unchanged. Annual headline inflation fell to 3.55% in June’s first half, down from 3.94% in May, while core inflation decreased to 4.12%. Banxico projects further inflation declines but noted risks like geopolitical conflicts and peso depreciation.

Moody's cut Mexico's credit rating to one notch above junk, and the Mexican peso trimmed losses after falling as much as 3.5%. The currency is vulnerable to Trump's trade policies. This change affects Mexico's economy.

BBVA warns that the annual review of the USMCA trade agreement could disrupt the recent strengthening of the Mexican peso. The analysis highlights potential economic risks tied to the agreement's evaluation process.