Global inflation

India's June inflation rate rose to 4.38%, exceeding forecasts and marking the sharpest increase in a global inflation trend that predates recent Gulf tensions. The article highlights India as an early warning sign for potential inflationary pressures in other regions.

Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are pushing oil prices above $100 a barrel. These disruptions threaten fertilizer supplies, semiconductor production, and global inflation.

Japanese government bond yields have risen to multi-year highs as global inflation concerns continue to weigh on markets. The increase reflects growing investor concerns about inflation pressures worldwide and their potential impact on monetary policy.

The IMF has lowered its global growth forecast amid the Hormuz blockade, citing higher inflation at 4.4% driven by increased oil, gas, and fertiliser costs. The economic outlook reflects ongoing challenges from energy and commodity price surges.

The article discusses the potential impact of the Iran war on global inflation, noting that while a recession might be avoided with luck, rising energy prices are expected to increase the cost of living. It explores how these factors could push global inflation to higher levels.