Carnegie

Russia's fiscal discipline is eroding as the government passed legislation to borrow more money, with the Ukraine war driving unsustainable defense spending and a 2.6% GDP federal deficit. Ukrainian attacks on energy and export infrastructure, including a drone strike in Crimea, are further straining the economy.

Hezbollah rejected a US-brokered ceasefire in Lebanon, undermining peace hopes as Israel conducted strikes before the truce took effect. A Carnegie expert described the ceasefire as 'performative,' and the conflict threatens to derail US-Iran talks tied to a Lebanon ceasefire.

Russia launched an aerial barrage on Ukraine with over 700 drones and missiles, following previous attacks. Analysts suggest Moscow is losing the war as territorial gains slow and the EU prepares sanctions. A defense expert posits a ceasefire could be Moscow's best option.