Possible Is Not Plausible: How Nightmare Scenarios Hijack Unconventional Weapons Policy

The article argues that discussions on unconventional weapons (chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear) are dominated by hypothetical scenarios like AI-enabled bioweapons, overshadowing real-world threats such as China's rethinking of biological warfare and Russia's use of chloropicrin in Ukraine. It warns that prioritizing speculative risks over current trends could leave the U.S. unprepared for actual incidents.