The labor market could become so backward that the economy will have to shed jobs to keep unemployment steady

President Donald Trump’s immigration policies and aging baby boomer retirements are reshaping the labor market, causing the breakeven rate for job growth to decline. Payrolls could stagnate or shrink while unemployment remains steady, with Oxford Economics forecasting the breakeven rate to reach zero by next year and turn negative by 2028. Healthcare and other industries may sustain modest job growth despite a shrinking labor force.