State of the climate: Rapidly developing El Niño raises chance of record-warm 2026

A rapidly intensifying El Niño event in the tropical Pacific has increased the chance of 2026 setting a global temperature record to 35%, up from 19% in April. The first half of 2026 was the third-warmest on record, with May and June 2026 being the second-warmest months amid strong El Niño conditions. Projections suggest 2027 could surpass 2026 as the warmest year, reaching around 1.7°C above pre-industrial levels.