The Miami Heat, LeBron James and prediction markets: how a ‘mistake’ social media post turbo-charged a $245 million wager

The Miami Heat accidentally published and deleted a YouTube video titled 'LeBron James Introductory Press Conference,' sparking a surge in prediction market bets on James joining the team. This led to over $245 million in wagers across Kalshi and Polymarket, with Miami's probability of landing James rising from 31.5% to near 50%.