SECURITYAL-MONITOR
Iran plays with fire, but calculates Trump will hold back
Iran is conducting strikes on ships as a calculated risk to enhance its deterrence, believing that U.S. President Trump will avoid escalating to full-scale war. The strategy aims to restore deterrence through limited escalation without triggering all-out conflict.
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Adjacent reporting
- Iran’s attack on Israel aims to restore deterrence but avoid return to war
- Extended naval blockade is admission US military escalation poses even greater risk
- U.S. strikes Iran after attacks on vessels in Strait of Hormuz
- Trump threatens Iran with more strikes but says recent fighting does not mean a return to war
- Iran will no longer accept endless talks. It is creating deterrence on its own terms