What prediction markets are saying about the chances of California passing a billionaire tax

Prediction markets show uncertainty about California's proposed billionaire tax passing the June 25 ballot deadline and subsequent voter approval. Kalshi and Polymarket traders price the odds of the tax appearing on the November ballot at near 50%, with lower chances of voter support at 18-19%. The tax targets individuals and trusts with $1 billion+ net worth, facing opposition from groups like the California Teachers Association and support from others like SEIU-UHW.