As immigration courts narrow legal pathways, ‘refugee roulette’ still favors Russian asylum seekers

Russian asylum seekers in Fort Snelling immigration court have historically had a 77% approval rate between 2010 and 2025, significantly higher than the 11% average for all countries. Since January 2025, approvals dropped to 53%, mirroring a broader decline under President Trump’s second term. Analysts attribute Russians’ high success rates to clear legal arguments about political persecution and U.S.-Russia geopolitical tensions.